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Additional info for Credit Scoring, Response Modelling and Insurance Rating: A Practical Guide to Forecasting Consumer Behaviour

Sample text

Model form and method of construction. In some situations any form of model may be acceptable, and a wide variety of methods are suitable for determining the model’s parameters. For other situations, there may be a requirement for a model of a particular form constructed using a particular method. There can be overlap between technical and business requirements, and sometimes it can be difficult to say into which category a particular requirement falls. However, technical requirements are generally 32 Credit Scoring, Response Modelling and Insurance Rating concerned with those things that influence the predictive properties of the model, such as the modelling objective and the time horizon over which the model predicts.

The project sponsor is usually a member of senior management or the head of the department responsible for building the model. • Project manager. The project manager is the central point of contact for the project. The project manager has a number of responsibilities. These include: obtaining and managing the resources the project requires, ensuring relevant company procedures are followed, facilitating communication between team members, production of a project plan, monitoring progress against the plan and dealing with risks and issues as they arise.

However, within a few months many banks were incurring huge losses as uncreditworthy customers defaulted on their mortgages in large numbers. If a model is to be used for the first time, as an operational tool replacing human decision makers, then a key objective may be to develop a very simple (linear or CART) model, containing just a few predictor variables. This is so that everyone can understand the model and so facilitate the acceptance of such models within the organization. In a similar vein, another operational reason for a modelling project may be to simplify the existing decision making system.

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