Download Agent-Based Models of Energy Investment Decisions by Tobias Wittmann PDF

By Tobias Wittmann

This e-book demonstrates how bounded rational selection versions will be standardized and parameterized by means of socio-economic info. concentrating on deepest strength expertise funding judgements, the writer indicates how various consultant brokers should be developed utilizing seek principles, research instruments and determination techniques. Diffusion curves for power applied sciences reminiscent of sun creditors, boilers and potency enhancements for structures are calculated. extra, the version is prolonged to check the impression of organizations’ festival on know-how diffusion. The modeling strategy offered during this e-book may well function a template for purposes in different domain.

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Sample text

Or they might face well above average interest rates (Evry 1997, Sorrell et al. 2004). 3 Behavioral Perspective Following Simon (1956, 1990) and Gigerenzer and Selten (2001) a different picture emerges. Many real world problems are computationally intractable, poorly defined or involve a high degree of uncertainty, so that optimal solutions are unknown. 3) instead. From the behavioral perspective, heuristics and decisions rules are needed to cope with the complexity of the outside world. They may be highly robust and outperform optimization strategies.

If two or more alternatives remain under consideration at that point, a decision rule is applied to select among the remaining alternatives. The decision model developed in this chapter will estimate the future insulation performance of residential buildings and the available energy conversion technologies. The model accounts for a range of decision characteristics as indicated in section two. Modelers will have to specify different types of agents who exhibit different distinct behavior patterns as well as an explicit set of technology and energy efficiency options which are potentially available to them.

Three different retrofit options, status quo maintenance (maintenance — the status quo is maintained and only necessary maintenance work is done), standard efficiency measures (standard — all windows are replaced by state-of-the-art windows and the thermal efficiency of the building shell is improved), and enhanced efficiency measures (enhanced — all windows are replaced by state-of-the-art windows and the shell is considerably improved) were selected. The demand for electricity, hot water, and room heating can be supplied by eight different supply options: energy can enter the building in form of electricity, oil, gas, wood pellets or high temperature water by means of a district heating grid (Hea_Grid).

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